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Fan Of One Of Last Season's NBA Lottery Teams? Don't Bother Getting Your Hopes Up

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This article is more than 6 years old.

The 2017-18 NBA season kicks off on Tuesday night. Right now, every team has the same record. So every team has the same hope for the future, right?

Of course not. History teaches us a clear lesson: Last season, 14 teams missed the NBA playoffs, and in 2018, you can expect most of those teams to miss the playoffs again.

Let’s start our history review with what happened last year. On May 17, 2016, the 14 teams that failed to make that year's playoffs gathered together to determine the draft order. At that time ― after a disappointing regular season ― hopes ran high. The draft promised to bring each team a talented player who could transform the fortunes of the franchise.

Flash forward to May 16, 2017. Once again, the NBA's losers gathered to determine the draft order. Ten teams definitely recognized where they were: Yes, those 10 teams were once again dreaming about the lottery's ping pong balls.

Such an outcome is not unusual. Since the NBA draft lottery began in 1985, about 70% of NBA teams (or about 10 of each 14) that appeared in the draft lottery one season have returned to the lottery the next season. This suggests the NBA draft lottery doesn’t quite work as promised. Each year, the NBA's losers are promised a young talent who will make them substantially better. But each year, most of those losers are still losers.

And how long does the losing continue? It's not uncommon for teams to keep coming back to the lottery year after year. For example, only two franchises Miami and San Antonio have not had a run of at least four consecutive years in the lottery since the 1985 draft. Nine franchises Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, the Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota, Sacramento, Vancouver-Memphis, and Washington have had at least one stretch in which the team made at least eight consecutive trips to the lottery.

This year Minnesota set a record, making its 13th consecutive trip to the lottery. Given that NBA teams have 15-man rosters, Minnesota could conceivably have almost an entire roster of lottery picks by now. It already has two players Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns  who were selected with the very first pick in the NBA draft (Wiggins was drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers and traded to the Timberwolves two months later). These two talents, who were supposed to transform Minnesota's fortunes, have thus far failed to lead Minnesota to the playoffs.

This past summer, Minnesota traded for Jimmy Butler, who produced an estimated 18.5 wins for the Chicago Bulls last year, leading many to believe the Timberwolves will finally break their playoff drought in 2018. But making the playoffs is not the lottery dream; ultimately, it is to contend for a title. So how often does this happen?

Let's say the minimum number of wins needed to be thought of as a contender is 50. And let's say the key to landing that special talent in the draft is to be so bad that you get one of the very first picks. If really bad is defined as winning less than 30 games, how often do those teams transform into 50-win title contenders?

Since 1985, 195 teams have failed to win 30 games in a regular season. Of these, eight or 4.1% won at least 50 games the next season. In other words, more than 95% of the teams were not transformed in one season.

What about two seasons afterward? Well, since 1985, 16 of 190 teams that won less than 30 games (8.4%) reached 50 wins two years later. Again, more than 90% didn’t make the leap in two years.

Let’s keep going. If we look at three years later, 16.8% reach 50 wins. Four years later, that percentage rises to 20.5%. And five years later, 23.1% reach 50 wins. In other words, of the teams that fail to win 30 games in a given season, 76.9% are not winning 50 or more games five years later.

It should be emphasized that most teams that became contenders did not do so simply because they landed one special talent in the draft. For example, the Phoenix Suns improved from 29 wins in 2003-04 to 62 wins in 2004-05. This improvement, though, had nothing to do with their 2004 lottery pick, Luol Deng. On draft night, Deng was traded to the Chicago Bulls for Jackson Vroman and a 2005 first-round pick that became Nate Robinson (who never played for the Suns). Vroman played 57 minutes for the Suns in 2004-05 and failed to produce any wins. In fact, Vroman's entire NBA career ended after 1,111 unproductive minutes.

How did the Suns manage to improve from 29 to 62 wins? Steve Nash, who was signed as a free agent in 2004 and produced 15.6 wins for the 2004-05 Suns. And Nash likely also improved the production of Amar'e Stoudemire and Shawn Marion. Yes, the Suns improved simply by signing a very productive free agent.

A similar story can be told about most winners in the NBA. Some draft picks might help, but to be a contender you often have to find top talent elsewhere.

Consider the team many expect to repeat as champions in 2018. In 2017-18, the Warriors won 67 games. Who produced these wins? Boxscoregeeks.com says that 12.8 of these wins can be traced to Stephen Curry, a player the Warriors took in the lottery in the 2009 draft. But Kevin Durant, a free agent in 2016, produced 11.7 wins. Andre Iguodala, whom the team acquired in a trade, produced 11.7 wins as well. And Draymond Green, a second-round pick in 2012, produced 9.3 wins. So about two-thirds of the team's wins can be traced to four players, and only one of them was a lottery pick for the Warriors.

The Warriors demonstrate how championship contenders are built: The key is to consider all sources of talent. It is not just about getting lucky in the draft. Unfortunately, too many teams seem to be relying on luck, not doing much more than hoping for a miracle. Even when that team gets lucky as the Minnesota Timberwolves did with Towns in 2015 (after acquiring Wiggins the year before)  it cannot truly contend until it finds something more.

So if you are a fan of one of the NBA's 2016-17 losers, chances are you will still be watching a loser in 2017-18. Yes, your team is 0-0 right now. But you still probably have no hope (sorry about that!).