Mega Millions ticket prices rose by 150% last week — from $2 to $5 — as the company changed aspects of the game, in a move that some experts say is designed to keep more people playing.
The lottery organization said the odds of winning any game are increasing from 1 in 24 to 1 in 23 — meaning players theoretically would now win at least once every 23 times they played — and odds of winning the jackpot will improve from 1 in 302,575,350 to 1 in 290,472,336 because one numbered ball is being removed from the game.
By way of comparison, the odds of being struck by lightning are 1 in 15,300.
The starting jackpot will also reset to $50 million from $20 million, among other changes like built-in multipliers that add to minimum prizes.
Mega Millions said cheaper options were still available for those who find the new $5 ticket price steep. Last week’s price hike from $2 was the second-ever price change in the lottery’s history. Officials said that in trials, they found players enjoyed the more costly, but potentially more rewarding, version of the game better.
Rising prices for groceries and other staples could squeeze household budgets and cut into the dollars available for lottery tickets, but Joshua Johnston, lead director for Mega Millions, said lotteries should just be games people play “for fun” with extra money.
“We try to offer games that appeal to different kinds of people,” Johnston told the Sun-Times on Monday. In surveys “people saw a lot of value in the $5 tickets in terms of what we were giving back to them with higher jackpots. A little bit of extra money helps us grow the jackpot quicker, but if that $5 feels too high, we still have Powerball.”
Nick Kaitria, an employee at a gas station at West Fullerton and North Western avenues, said it was hard to see the impact of the price increase, given it had only been in effect for a few days, but that some customers had complained about the price increase and switched to the cheaper Powerball option.
“They’ve been mad about it, but maybe they’ll get used to it,” Kaitria said. “It’s too early to tell.”
Kaitria said he doesn’t play the lottery.
Northwestern professor emeritus Barry Nelson, who specializes in statistical efficiency risk modeling, said the new rules are designed to make people buy more tickets because it will theoretically reward players with smaller prizes more often, keeping them playing.
“When you win, even the simplest bet, you win more, and that’s clearly the big enticement,” Nelson told the Sun-Times. “On the other hand, you’re paying $5 for the same privilege. … I’m sure they did all the same calculations I did when they designed it, and that’s exactly what it’s designed to do.”
Mega Millions has said the chances are increasing for players, but the only way to truly increase one’s odds of winning, according to Nelson, is buying more tickets in order to have more chances to win. He also suggests choosing numbers that others are less likely to use, in order to reduce the chance anyone has to split jackpots.
Nelson said he played the lottery once, in 2007, shortly ahead of an interview on WGN where he thought he might be asked about the process. He still has the losing ticket and hasn’t played since because he said, as a risk assessment expert, it wasn’t worth the risk.
“I always advise people not to play the lottery,” Nelson said. “If you’re playing the lottery for fun, sure. But one should never play the lottery in hopes of making money, ever. Your chances of winning the big jackpots are so low, basically you’re just gonna throw away money. … It’s just a losing strategy.”
